import numpy as np
import astropy.units as u
from astropy.units import Quantity
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from astropy.visualization import quantity_support
dollar = u.def_unit(['dollar'])
def fivenum(a):
""" Returns five-number-summary of array as tuple. minimum, first quartile, median, third quartile, maximum"""
return (np.min(a), np.percentile(a, 25), np.median(a), np.percentile(a, 75), np.max(a))
def NormalRange(low, high, size=10000):
mu = np.mean([low, high])
stddev = (high - mu) / 1.645
return np.random.normal(mu, stddev, size)
The total cost of ownership of a nuclear power plant with 1 MW of output will depend on a variety of factors such as the initial construction cost, ongoing maintenance and operation costs, fuel costs, decommissioning costs, and other expenses.
The initial construction cost of a nuclear power plant with 1 MW of output can vary greatly depending on the design and location of the plant. However, according to the World Nuclear Association, the typical cost of building a nuclear power plant with a capacity of 1 GW (1000 MW) is around USD 5 billion to USD 10 billion, depending on the location and other factors.
Ongoing maintenance and operation costs can also vary depending on the design and age of the plant. According to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the average annual maintenance and operation costs for a nuclear power plant in the US in 2020 were around USD 36 million to USD 56 million per reactor.
Fuel costs for a nuclear power plant typically make up a small portion of the overall cost of ownership. According to the World Nuclear Association, the cost of fuel for a nuclear power plant with a capacity of 1 GW is typically around USD 60 million to USD 80 million per year.
Decommissioning costs can also be significant, as nuclear power plants must be dismantled and the site cleaned up after they are retired. According to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the estimated cost of decommissioning a nuclear power plant in the US ranges from $300 million to $5 billion, depending on the size and complexity of the plant.
Other expenses, such as insurance and taxes, may also be significant.
Given all these factors, it is difficult to provide an accurate estimate of the total cost of ownership of a nuclear power plant with 1 MW of output. However, based on the above information, it can be assumed that the total cost of ownership would likely be in the millions or billions of dollars over the lifetime of the plant.
NP_CAPEX = Quantity(NormalRange(5e9, 10e9), dollar)
NP_OPEX = Quantity(NormalRange(36e6, 56e6), dollar * u.year**-1)
NP_Decomissioning = Quantity(NormalRange(300e6, 5e9), dollar)
NP_Forty_Years_Costs = NP_CAPEX + NP_Decomissioning + NP_OPEX * 40 * u.year
fivenum(NP_Forty_Years_Costs)
(<Quantity 4.49846047e+09 dollar>, <Quantity 1.05886069e+10 dollar>, <Quantity 1.19988374e+10 dollar>, <Quantity 1.34445268e+10 dollar>, <Quantity 1.9995993e+10 dollar>)
The amount of solar panel surface area needed to produce 1 GW (gigawatt) of power depends on several factors, including the efficiency of the solar panels and the amount of sunlight available at the installation location.
Assuming an average solar panel efficiency of around 20%, which is common for commercially available solar panels, and an average of 5 peak sun hours per day, you would need approximately 5 square kilometers (1,235 acres) of solar panel surface area to generate 1 GW of power.
This calculation is based on the following assumptions:
However, it's important to note that this calculation is only an estimate and actual surface area requirements may vary depending on several factors, including the specific location, climate, and other site-specific factors. Additionally, solar panels can be installed at different angles and orientations to optimize their performance, which can also affect the required surface area.
The costs to buy a solar power setup that can generate 1 GW of power would depend on several factors, including the cost of the solar panels, the cost of the installation, and any additional equipment or infrastructure needed to support the system.
Assuming an average cost of $1 per watt for solar panels, the cost of the solar panels alone for a 1 GW system would be $1 billion. However, it's important to note that the cost of solar panels can vary widely depending on factors such as the manufacturer, quality, and quantity purchased.
The cost of installation would depend on a variety of factors, including the size and complexity of the installation, the location, and any additional infrastructure needed to support the system. According to the US Department of Energy, the average installed cost of a utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) system in the US in 2020 was around $1.20 per watt. Based on this estimate, the installation cost for a 1 GW solar PV system would be approximately $1.2 billion.
Other costs associated with a solar power setup could include equipment such as inverters, batteries for energy storage, and transmission infrastructure to connect the system to the grid. These costs can vary widely depending on the specifics of the system and the location.
Overall, the total cost to buy a 1 GW solar power setup would likely be in the billions of dollars. However, it's important to note that the cost of solar power has been decreasing rapidly in recent years, and many governments offer incentives and subsidies to encourage the development of renewable energy sources, which can help offset some of these costs.
The yearly operating expenses (OpEx) for a 1 GW solar power setup would depend on several factors, including the cost of maintenance, repairs, monitoring, and any additional expenses related to operating the system.
According to industry estimates, the OpEx for a utility-scale solar PV system typically ranges from $10,000 to $20,000 per MW per year, or $10 million to $20 million per year for a 1 GW system. However, these costs can vary widely depending on the specifics of the system, the location, and the cost of labor and materials in the region.
The largest ongoing cost for a solar power system is typically maintenance, which includes tasks such as cleaning the panels, replacing worn or damaged equipment, and monitoring the system's performance. The cost of maintenance can vary depending on the complexity of the system and the amount of regular upkeep required. Other potential OpEx costs could include insurance, property taxes, and any fees associated with connecting the system to the grid.
It's worth noting that the OpEx for a solar power system is generally much lower than the OpEx for a fossil fuel power plant, which typically requires ongoing fuel costs as well as higher maintenance costs due to the complexity of the equipment. Additionally, the cost of solar power has been decreasing rapidly in recent years, which can help offset some of the OpEx costs associated with operating a solar power setup.
Overall, the yearly OpEx for a 1 GW solar power setup would likely be in the millions of dollars per year, but the specific costs would depend on a variety of factors, including the location, the size and complexity of the system, and the ongoing maintenance and repair costs.
SP_CAPEX = Quantity(np.random.normal(1.2e9, 2, size=10000), dollar)
SP_OPEX = Quantity(NormalRange(10e6, 20e6), dollar * u.year**-1)
SP_Decomissioning = Quantity(np.random.normal(1.2e9/2, 3, size=10000), dollar)
SP_Forty_Years_Costs = SP_CAPEX + SP_Decomissioning + SP_OPEX * 40 * u.year
fivenum(SP_Forty_Years_Costs)
(<Quantity 1.87305558e+09 dollar>, <Quantity 2.31678468e+09 dollar>, <Quantity 2.40032108e+09 dollar>, <Quantity 2.48293969e+09 dollar>, <Quantity 2.89818685e+09 dollar>)
with quantity_support():
plt.hist(NP_Forty_Years_Costs, label="Nuclear Power", bins=50)
plt.hist(SP_Forty_Years_Costs, label="Solar Power", bins=50)
plt.title("Probability Distribution\nComparison TCO of a 1 GW installation Nuclear vs. Solar Power")
plt.legend()
np.std(SP_Forty_Years_Costs), np.std(NP_Forty_Years_Costs)
(<Quantity 1.22219818e+08 dollar>, <Quantity 2.11035654e+09 dollar>)